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Explanation about how to add regressors to Prophet model to improve forecast accuracy
Contents:
  1. Total US Retail Sales Top $4.5 Trillion in 2013, Outpace GDP Growth
  2. Bloomington Forecast
  3. India Ethanol (Comprehensive Techno-Commercial) Market Analysis and Forecast, 2013-2030

Total US Retail Sales Top $4.5 Trillion in 2013, Outpace GDP Growth

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Bloomington Forecast

Gartner Research. Already have a Gartner Account? I have copied a date column to be defined as an index column:. We need to construct future data-frame for ten days — creating Pandas data-frame for ten days from —01—01 and initializing each element with temperature forecast normalized value :.

European Online Retail Sales Continue Their Double-Digit Growth

If the date falls into the training set, then returning temperature from the training set, otherwise from a future forecast data frame the one constructed above. Period for ten days into the future is set.


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Prophet model is constructed with fit function, predict function is called to calculate forecast:. Forecast value for bike rentals, with additional regressor for the temperature, starting from —01— The temperature forecast is good, warm weather for January is expected, this helps to adjust numbers for bike rentals to be higher naturally there should be more rentals if weather temperature is good :.

Model with two additional regressors— weather temperature and condition. The dataset contains quite a few attributes which describe the weather, using more of these attributes would help to calculate the more accurate forecast for bike rentals. I will show how adding one more regressor could change the forecast. Additional regressor — weather condition check weathersit attribute in the dataset is added using the above code, along with weather temperature regressor.

Even if weather temperature in January is increasing which is good for bike rentals , overall weather is bad this should decrease the number of bike rentals.

With the second regressor pointing to bad expected bad weather , Prophet returns smaller expected bike rental numbers:. Summary : Additional regressors feature is very important for accurate forecast calculation in Prophet. It helps to tune how the forecast is constructed and make prediction process more transparent.


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Regressor must be a variable which was known in the past and known or separately forecasted for the future. Sign in. Get started.

India Ethanol (Comprehensive Techno-Commercial) Market Analysis and Forecast, 2013-2030

Explanation about how to add regressors to Prophet model to improve forecast accuracy. Andrej Baranovskij Follow. I have created and compared three models: Time series Prophet model with date and number of bike rentals A model with additional regressor —weather temperature A model with additional regressor s— weather temperature and state raining, sunny, etc.

Model without additional regressors Forecast values for bike rentals, starting from —01—